Sports Futures Reports preloadImages(); Physical Activity Trends: Business and Policy Implications (Published October, 2005) About the Report Here is the message Physical Activity Trends: Business and Policy Implications delivers in great detail to all concerned with health and health policy, park and recreational facility managers, sports, governing bodies, sporting goods manufacturers and vendors, and the general public. America is the richest nation ever. Our affluence has permitted us luxuries past generations could not have imagined--door-to-door transport by private automobile, automation of the workplace, and countless labor saving devices for the home-- and other nations are rapidly following our example. Yet, these luxuries are robbing us of the physical activity we need for good health and are creating a public health crisis that will worsen unless people devote more of their leisure time to keeping themselves fit. The crisis most clearly manifests itself in the nation’s much publicized obesity crisis that is alarming the medical community, and there is abundant evidence that physical inactivity also contributes to a host of other health problems such as depression, osteoporosis and heart disease. In the U.S. 16% of children and adolescents aged 6-19 are overweight, and clinical reports show the incidence of Type II diabetes in children is rising. Adults keep them good company with 30%, or over 60 million people over age 20, classified as obese, and 25% of them getting no leisure physical activity at all. When adults actually had to walk for transport, do hard manual labor to earn their daily bread and use their muscles instead of labor saving appliances to keep house, they didn’t have to worry about getting enough exercise. Now they do! Because of our 21st century way of life, most adults must devote some of their leisure time to exercise or risk life threatening medical conditions. Similarly, when children walked or rode their bicycles to school instead of being driven by their parents or riding the school bus, played outdoor pickup games according to rules they made up without adult supervision instead of organized team games that excluded the less athletically gifted, and did not have television sets and computers with high speed internet access in their bedrooms, their parents didn’t need to worry about their getting enough exercise. Now they do! Parents must encourage active transport to school, lobby for more effective school physical education programs and continuation of recess, resist the temptation to overprogram their children so that they have time for active free play, and restrict their children’s screen time. The good news is that many forces are working in favor of more active leisure, and Americans are taking advantage of exercise opportunities in large, although still insufficient, numbers. For example, all over America recreational trails like the Capital Crescent Trail in metropolitan Washington, DC, are giving Americans car free places to walk, run, ride bicycles and ski cross country and snowshoe. Charities are giving people the opportunity to do good for others and themselves by sponsoring runs, walks, bike rides and other athletic events to raise money such as the National Multiple Sclerosis Society’s MS Bike Rides and Challenge Walks, and thousands of Americans not only participate but prepare to do so with training programs. And, sporting goods manufacturers and vendors are offering a vast array of exercise equipment, footwear, apparel and performance monitoring and entertainment electronics that enhance enjoyment of exercise and prevent injuries. No one can be certain whether the forces working in favor of more active leisure will prevail and mitigate America’s health crisis. The report considers four scenarios--The Home Health Club, The Frolic in the Park, The Media Room, and $5 Night at the Ballpark s depicting how the forces working for and against active leisure could play out between now and 2030 and, most importantly, strategies that concerned parties can start implementing today to prepare for this uncertain future. Order this report in print or digital form, by calling Consilience Chairman Ken Harris at 301-657-3731 or emailing him at kenharris39@mac.com if you wish to pay by check or money order or by calling SBRnet President Richard Lipsey at 609-896-1996 if you wish to pay with a major credit card. Global Aging and Sports: The Impact of Aging of the World's Population on the World of Sports (published October 2006) About the Report Here is the message of the Global Aging and Sports: The Impact of Aging of the World's Population on The World of Sports delivers in great detail to those concerned with health; aging; sports leagues, teams and governing bodies; and sporting goods manufacturers and vendors. Medical advances since the beginning of the 20th century caused not only a doubling of life expectancy but also dramatically postponed and shrank the period of life known as frail old age, and this trend has gained such momentum that it is likely to continue indefinitely. Science is likely to conquer more afflictions of old age and may even find a way to retard the aging process itself. As a result, people are preserving their physical capabilities far longer than in the past, and concepts of appropriate behavior for older people are fast changing. These developments have led to the emergence of the New Senior Citizen Athlete. Many professional athletes continue their careers after the traditional retirement age of 40 like the 47 year old who in 2006 completed his 24th season of Major League Baseball competition with a 273 batting average, and many more people participate at a high level in amateur sports and fitness activities in mid-life and senior years like the team of 4 women aged 58-64 who in 2006 completed cycling’s race across America in less than 8 days and the 80-year old who completed the 2006 Hawaii Ironman Triathlon in less than the allowed time of 17 hours But, these standout older athletes are not alone. Plenty of people over 45 are competing or participating recreationally in sports and fitness because they enjoy competition, they want to stay healthy, or they want active recreation. Their participation is growing in 34 sports and fitness activities, including 13 in which total participation by Americans is declining, according to the latest Sporting Goods Manufacturing Association (SGMA) data. The medical advances that are letting people lead longer healthier lives and changing social attitudes about appropriate behavior for older people are necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for the emergence of the New Senior Citizen Athlete. Three other factors have made senior athletes a force to be reckoned with. • People know that sports and fitness are ways to build the physical activity needed for good health into our increasingly sedentary lives. • Greater opportunities exist to participate in senior sports leagues (Men’s Senior Baseball League/Men’s Adult Baseball League and The International Tennis Association Seniors Circuit), multi-sport festivals (World Senior Games and US National Senior Games), and events like marathons, walks and bicycle rides open to people of all ages (the Marine Corps Marathon in Washington, DC, and The Seagull Century (a 100-mile bicycle ride on Maryland’s Eastern Shore)). • Improved technology keeps people in the game longer by making play more enjoyable (tennis racquets with bigger sweet spots) and preventing injuries (bicycle helmets and hip and knee pads) But, Senior Citizen Athletes will not necessarily continue to be a long-term “pot of gold” for businesses that depend on older people’s interest and participation in fitness and sports. Much will depend on people’s continued motivation to participate and the future state of the economy. Four main factors determine motivation: health (believing and acting on the advice of health authorities to exercise), competition (measure one’s efforts against those of others), fun (desire to enjoy oneself) and public approval (beliefs about the extent to which sports participation is desirable and/or appropriate for older people). The economy greatly affects people’s ability to participate because it determines whether adequate health care exists for an increasingly older population and whether people have sufficient discretionary income and leisure time. Three conditions, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, diabetes and obesity, and osteoporosis, threaten the ability of older people to participate in sports and fitness—not only those directly afflicted but also their caregivers. Global Aging and Sports explores four scenarios for the future of older people’s sports and fitness in the first half of the 21st century and strategies organizations can pursue now to prepare for emergences of these scenarios. In Playing Field, Court and Health Club, a booming free-market economy creates an intense desire for competition in sports as well as business. Competing in ultra-marathons and double century bicycle rides becomes popular. Senior and super senior sports participants drive an intensely competitive market for high-quality sporting goods. People of all ages walk and run for exercise in every conceivable virtual environment on computerized, web-enabled treadmills, which are part of increasingly sophisticated home health clubs. In professional sports, team owners flush with cash form senior Major League Baseball, the senior NBA, and the senior NHL, giving Baby Boomers the opportunity to continue watching the sports heroes of their youth. In Fresh Air and Sunshine, an activist federal government partly resolves America’s long-term economic problems with tougher health, safety, environmental protection and energy conservation regulations. Increased environmental and health consciousness build the necessary political support for rejuvenation of old and creation of new public parks and recreational trails where people engage in a variety of outdoor sports and fitness activities. Sports and fitness activities that allow people of all ages to enjoy the cleaner environment—walking, hiking, climbing, bicycle riding, canoeing, kayaking and cross-country skiing-- are among those that become popular. Team sports continue to remain popular but become less organized. Letting children play by their own rules instead of in adult micromanaged leagues becomes OK again, and adults begin to play pickup baseball, softball and touch football games and to copy children’s games like kickball and dodgeball. Times are not so good for professional sports as Baby Boomers enjoy outdoor activities as much as possible and become disillusioned with sensational media reports of professional athletes’ bad behavior. Senior professional golf and tennis, however, continue to have enough fans for economic viability. Sports Bar and Home Theater is the best of times for professional and top amateur sports. The long-term economic problems of the United States are solved through legislation, and the resulting high prosperity allows people to have a life of passive luxury leisure. People enjoy viewing sports events in the luxury of their home media rooms and nicely appointed sports bars and participate in them only to the extent that they can “make the team” in school. Because medicine conquers most diseases and universal access to health care becomes available, health concerns no longer motivate people to be fit. Sports competitions for people over 45 become social occasions in the form of corporate golf and hunting outings. Golf’s Champion’s Tour becomes the only surviving senior professional sports league, mainly because of its traditional appeal. Other senior professional leagues fail because market research shows that the public prefers to watch young, well-trained athletes on television and the Internet. In Mall Walking, Minor League Baseball and Friday Night Lights, the U.S. economy becomes weak as a result of failure to resolve long-term economic problems. Chronic federal budget deficits make providing universal access to health care and adequate funding for research on chronic diseases impossible. Participation in sports and fitness activities grows more slowly than the population of older people. People lack leisure time for sports and fitness because of the need to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. Walking, bicycling and swimming remain popular especially during periods of unemployment because of their low cost. Amateur sports competition other than that among school and college teams sharply declines. Not only is golf’s Champions Tour the only senior professional sports league to survive but poor economic conditions cause the demise of women’s leagues. Order this report in print or digital form by calling Consilience Chairman Ken Harris at 301-657-3731 or emailing him at kenharris39@mac.com if you wish to pay by check or money order or by calling SBRnet President Richard Lipsey at 609-896-1996 if you wish to pay with a major credit card. Physical Activity Trends: Business and Policy Implications, 2007 Edition (Published October 2007) About the Report Physical Activity Trends: Business and Policy Implications, 2007 Edition, delivers a more detailed, hopeful message on the future of physical fitness and sports than the 2005 edition. America and, increasingly, the rest of the world still face a health crisis caused in large measure by modern, physically-inactive lifestyles. Just like the 2005 edition, the 2007 edition notes that the medical literature well documents the health benefits of exercise and the health risks of a lack of it, but references additional medical studies. The 2007 edition includes more recent data on Americans’ physical activity and the lack of it. It shows in more detail why exercise in one’s leisure time is essential to realize the health benefits of exercise and why a majority of Americans are not exercising enough in their leisure time to realize those health benefits. Leisure time exercise is essential for American adults for four main reasons. Distances and safety concerns make automobile transport rather than bicycling or walking the only practical transport mode for many purposes. Mechanization and automation of the home eliminate opportunities for exercise doing domestic chores, and information technology has eliminated the need for much physical labor in paid employment. The new edition also contains more recent information showing that adult Americans, even parents of young children, do have enough leisure time to exercise, but that they prefer inactive pursuits like TV and the Internet to exercise. The 2007 edition also shows that American children and adolescents need to exercise in their leisure more than they do for five main reasons. School physical education standards remain lax. Many children and adolescents ride to school on the school bus or in a parent’s car instead of walking or bicycling. Competitive youth sports tend to exclude those who are not athletically talented, make the athletically talented subject to overuse injuries, and may even alienate them from an active lifestyle. Many parents over schedule their children’s lives and thus deprive them of much needed free play, especially outdoor free play, and many children and adolescents, like their parents, spend major amounts of time with electronic media. The 2007 edition carries a more hopeful message because it identifies and explores in detail 15 trends favorable to physical activity. The momentum created by these counter trends will be difficult to reverse and thus gives good reason for hope that one of the two optimistic scenarios for the future of physical activity or a mix of them will be the physical activity future that actually emerges. The 15 counter trends are: 1. Groups like MomsTeam are making serious efforts to reform youth sports, and these efforts are attracting media attention and stimulating youth sports reform. 2. With support from federal transportation trust funds, serious efforts are underway to provide safe routes for children and adolescents to walk or bicycle to school. 3. States and school districts are making efforts to reform physical education programs to appeal to today’s youth like West Virginia’s introduction of Dance Dance Revolution into its public school curriculum 4. Many public and private organizations, especially those fighting chronic diseases like the American Heart Association, are urging people to exercise. 5. Adult Americans have many more opportunities to participate in organized athletic events after college and high school. Charities like the National Multiple Sclerosis Society sponsor runs, walks, bicycle rides, etc. to raise money. 6. Exercise tourism offers vacations like inn-to-inn bicycle and walking tours in which exercise is the principal activity. Preparation for such vacations builds an exercise habit. 7. New sports and forms of exercise are emerging that stimulate interest of new and expanded populations in physical activity. Gentler forms like Yoga and Pilates appeal to women and our aging population. 8. With support of federal transportation trust funds, recreational trails that give Americans car-free places to exercise keep expanding. More than 1,400 of these trails like The Capital Crescent Trail in greater Washington, DC, are on abandoned railroad rights of way. 9. Changes in laws, regulations and social attitudes are making exercise more possible for more people. Physical fitness and sports participation have become mainstream activities for women and girls and socially acceptable activity for people over age 40. 10. Forces favoring urban design to accommodate automobile transport are weakening. New towns like the King Farm in Rockville, MD, are designed for transport by walking and bicycling. 11. Exercise is being integrated into the work lives of people who have sedentary jobs through employee fitness programs and design of buildings to encourage stair climbing and walking. 12. Exercise in the home is becoming more feasible because of home gymnasiums and affordable on line training programs. The general public can access Oprah Winfrey’s personal trainer on line. 13. Video games like the Wii system requiring active participation are becoming popular. 14. Continuous technological advances are making exercise more possible for more people by preventing and speeding recovery from injuries; providing means of measuring and recording athletic performance; keeping people entertained, comfortable and connected while they exercise; and making exercise possible for those who would formerly have been considered disabled. 15. Miscellaneous incentives to exercise like health insurers’ anti-obesity programs are becoming more popular. No one can be certain whether the 15 trends working in favor of more active leisure will solve the health crisis caused by a lack of physical activity. The report contains the same four scenarios as the 2005 edition—The Home Health Club, Frolic in the Park, The Media Room, and $5 Night at the Ballpark—showing how the forces working for and against active leisure could play out between now and 2030, but the scenario narratives have been considerably expanded and clarified to include in more detail how each scenario could affect sporting goods manufacturers and retailers; sports coaches, trainers, academies and camps; sports governing bodies; sports medicine and sports and fitness facilities. The report concludes with detailed recommended strategies for sports organizations based on the assumption that a mix of the two optimistic scenarios—The Home Health Club and Frolic in the Park—will be the future that actually emerges over the next decade and beyond. The strategies include public products and services that sports organizations should offer for maximum advantage, hedging measures in case either of the pessimistic scenarios actually emerges and detailed trend and event monitoring recommendations to help sports organizations prepare for any future. Order this report in print or digital form by calling Consilience Chairman Ken Harris at 301-657-3731 or by emailing him at kenharris39@mac.com if you wish to pay by check or money order or by calling SBRnet President Richard Lipsey at 609-896-1996 if you wish to pay with a major credit card.